Final Poll Predictions for the 2018 Midterm Election

On Tuesday, voters in the United States of America will be going to the polls to determine their local, state, and congressional leadership.

While some hope to see Republicans maintain or even expand their majorities in Congress, others are working on creating a “Blue Wave” that will eventually reverse President Donald Trump’s policy efforts.

As the midterms get closer, many polls are indicating a drop in certainty for gubernatorial and House of Representatives races.

Nevertheless, as with past weeks, Republicans are expected to maintain control of the Senate while Democrats are expected to gain control of the House.

National Trends

RealClearPolitics averaged a series of polls from such prominent entities as Rasmussen Reports, Gallup, Quinnipiac, and NPR/Marist, among others.

In a report accessed the day before Tuesday’s midterms, RCP showed that President Donald Trump had a job approval rating of 43.6 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.2 percent.

This is slightly lower than last week, when President Trump’s approval rating was at 44.4 percent, yet slightly stronger than three weeks ago when he had an approval rating of 43.2 percent.

For their generic congressional vote data, also accessed Monday, RCP had the Democrats ahead with 49.7 percent, while the Republicans had 42.4 percent.

Throughout the midterm election season, RCP has had the Democrats ahead of the Republicans in their generic congressional vote data.


In their “Senate No Toss Ups 2018” map, accessed Monday, RealClearPolitics predicted that Republicans would retain their 51-seat majority to the Democrats’ 49-seat minority.

This represents a considerable decline from last week, when RCP predicted the Republicans would hold 54 seats and the Democrats would hold 46.

The shift came for the races in Arizona, Indiana, and Nevada, which RCP predicted as going Republican but now sees them as likely going Democrat.

Since June, RCP’s Senate map has predicted that either the Republicans will maintain a majority or split the upper house 50-50 with the Democrats, which would make Vice President Mike Pence a key tiebreaker.

The Center for Politics, led by University of Virginia political scientists Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik, predicts Republicans will net gain one seat, giving them a 52 seat majority.

FiveThirtyEight’s model, updated Monday morning, gives the Republicans an 83.6 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, while giving the Democrats a 16.4 percent chance of gaining control.

FiveThirtyEight has forecasted that Republicans will keep control and possibly expand on their majority come the midterms since August, with the GOP’s chances never going below 65 percent.

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Source: Christian Post